Havering, an in-depth look at their healthy streets perfomance

When we published our 2021 Scorecard, Havering languished near the bottom of the table in 32nd place out of 33 London local authorities, with only Hillingdon scoring worse overall. Let’s take a closer look at how Havering scored on our HealthyStreets indicators.

Just 45% of journeys in Havering were made by sustainable modes (walking, cycling or public transport) our 2021 Healthy Streets Scorecard revealed, well below the London average of 66%. Only 1% of journeys in the borough were by bike, 22% were walked and 23% were by public transport. (LTDS 3 yr average 2017/18-2019/20.)

The Mayor’s target is to increase the share of trips in London made by sustainable modes to 80% by 2041. Havering slightly increased its sustainable modeshare by 1.9% in our 2021 Scorecard results compared to 2019 Scorecard results (from 43% to 45%). 

Just over a third of adults (35.4%) in Havering walked at least 5 times per week, which was below the London average of 38.1%. (Two-year average 2017/18 and 2018/19.)

Havering, along with Barking and Dagenham, had the lowest proportion of adult residents regularly cycling of the London boroughs. Less than 1% of residents cycled frequently (at least 5 times per week), well below the London average of 4.5%. (Two-year average 2017/18 and 2018/19.)

Havering is one of the London boroughs with the highest levels of car ownership, with only Hillingdon and Harrow having more per household. Havering has 109 cars registered for every 100 households, 75 cars more/100HH than the lowest borough ownership in Islington and Tower Hamlets (each having 34 cars/100HH). (London average is 75 cars/100HH.)

Commenting on Havering’s 2021 Scorecard performance, we said: “Little progress has been made implementing measures that result in healthier streets” & “there is little sign its political leadership has any will to deliver improvements for anyone other than drivers”.

Our LTN update revealed only 7% of Havering’s street area that is appropriate for a Low Traffic Neighbourhood was actually covered by LTNs. This was well below the London average of 23% and far short of leading borough Hackney’s 70% LTN coverage of suitable streets.

Our updated map shows the Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in Havering (the grey areas are historic pre-March 2020 LTNs).
For more background, read the blog post ‘LTNs are nothing new in Havering‘ by campaign group Better Streets for Havering.

Our 2021 Scorecard results showed just 5% of Havering’s schools had traffic-free School Streets compared to a London average of 15%.
Source: HS Scorecard and Mums for Lungs.

Although Havering Council consulted on 13 School Streets Schemes, covering 18 schools in summer 2020, it implemented these at just four schools and ended four Public Space Protection Order schemes outside local primary & infant schools that were previously introduced to improve safety.

In December 2021 Havering Council’s Highways Advisory Committee recommended 8 new School Streets schemes covering 10 schools, which if approved and implemented, would bring Havering’s total to 11 School Streets covering 14 schools.

See Romford Recorder article: Traffic restriction schemes for ten schools recommended for approval.

Havering is in the top quartile of London boroughs for school STARs behaviour change accreditation. STARS stands for Sustainable Travel: Active, Responsible, Safe. It is a Transport for London scheme designed to inspire young Londoners to travel sustainably. 

Only 1% of roads in Havering had protected cycle lanes compared to a London average of 4.1%.

There were 21.3 pedestrian serious and fatal casualties in Havering per 100,000 daily walking stages on average annually, more than the London average of 17.7 (3 yr average using data from 2017-2019.)

There were 2.5 cyclist serious & fatal casualties in Havering per 1,000 daily cycling stages on average annually (the lowest of any London borough and likely due to low cycling rate overall). The London average is 4.6 (3 yr average using data from 2017-2019).

Only 9.9% of borough-managed roads in Havering were covered by 20mph speed limits, putting it in the bottom five London boroughs for this Healthy Streets indicator.

Only 12% of borough-managed roads in Havering had controlled parking, considerably less than the London average of 48%.

Let’s also look at how Havering is performing against some of the Local Implementation Plan 3 targets the London Mayor has set the borough in order to help achieve the Mayor’s Transport Strategy priorities for London.

Every London borough has LIP3 targets for a range of indicators and these are different for central, inner & outer London. You can find out each borough’s targets in a TfL spreadsheet named ‘LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes‘.

Havering’s LIP target for sustainable mode share was 46% for 2021 & 65% for 2041. The 2021 target was looking achievable based on the last London Travel Demand Survey with borough breakdowns (Havering had a 45% sustainable mode share: LTDS 3 year-average 2017/18-2019/20).

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec

In London, prior to the pandemic, there was steady although slow progress towards the Mayor’s aim for 80% of trips to be made by sustainable modes by 2041. 63.2% of trips were made by sustainable modes in 2019, but the pandemic resulted in a decrease to 58.3% in 2020.

We do not currently have borough-level data on what effect the pandemic may have had on Havering’s progress towards its 2021 LIP target for sustainable modeshare.

The Mayor’s Transport Strategy sets an active people aim for 70% of Londoners to achieve at least 20 minutes of walking or cycling each day by 2041. In 2019/20, 42% of Londoners achieved 20 minutes of active travel a day.

Havering’s LIP target for the % of residents doing at least the 20 mins of activetravel a day they need to stay healthy is 21% for 2021 & 42% for 2041. Only 18% achieved this in the last period for which we have LTDS borough-level data (LTDS 3 year-average 2017/18-2019/20).

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

The Mayor’s aim is for 70% of Londoners to live within 400m of the London-wide strategic cycle network by 2041. By autumn 2021, the proportion of Londoners living within 400m of a cycle route was 19.4%, up from 11.5% in 2019.

None of Havering’s residents lived within 400m of the London-wide strategic cycle network as of 2021. The borough’s LIP target is 0% for 2021 and 42% by 2041.

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

The Mayor’s Vision Zero aim is the elimination of all deaths & serious injuries on London’s transport system by 2041. In 2020, under pandemic road conditions, 3,070 people were killed or seriously injured on the capital’s roads, a reduction of 52% against the 2005-09 baseline.

Source: TfL's Vision Zero action plan progress report, November 2021

There were 78 deaths and serious injuries (KSIs) from road collisions in Havering in 2020 (STATS19 data). The borough’s LIP target for KSIs in 2022 is 44; 24 in 2030 and zero in 2041.

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

Transport for London’s Road danger reduction dashboard shows 61 people killed or seriously injured in road collisions for Havering over the period 1 January to 31 October 2021.

Source: Road danger reduction dashboard

Transport for London’s collision location map for the period 1 January to 31 October 2021 shows where, tragically, two cyclists were killed last January within a few of days of one another at Marsh Way in Rainham in collisions involving goods vehicles.

Source: TfL's Road danger reduction dashboard

You can view this map in closer detail and find road collision data for Havering and other London boroughs using TfL’s Road danger reduction dashboard.

The Mayor’s LIP 3 aim was for a 10-15% reduction in vehicle km travelled on London’s streets by 2041. More recently he released a commissioned report which stated that in order to meet climate change targets, car vehicle km must reduce by at least 27% in London by 2030.

Here are links to the news release and the Mayor-commissioned report ‘Analysis of a Net Zero 2030 Target for Greater London’ by Element Energy:

In 2018, 1,615 million annual vehicle kilometres were travelled on roads in Havering. The borough’s 2021 LIP target was 1,595m annual vehicle km & its 2041 target is 1,468m annual km, a 5% reduction on its 2015 traffic levels.

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

Trend data shows an increase in traffic levels between 2010 and 2019 in Havering. 2020 saw a sharp pandemic-related decrease, as was the case in London and Britain generally.

Road traffic statistics, Local authority Havering
(Note: this chart shows vehicle miles.)

Source: DfT Road traffic statistics

The Mayor’s target is for there to be 250,000 fewer cars registered in London by 2041 compared to 2015.

In 2020, there were 122,873 licensed cars owned in Havering. The borough’s LIP target levels were 117,400 cars by 2021 and 97,400 by 2041.

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

The Mayor’s emissions targets for London are a 72% reduction in CO2, a 94% reduction in NOx, a 45% reduction in PM10 & a 53% reduction in PM2.5 from transport (excluding aviation) by 2041 compared to 2013.

In 2019, 406,800 tonnes of CO2, 890 tonnes of NOx, 93 tonnes of PM10 and 50 tonnes of PM2.5 were emitted from road transport in Havering. The borough’s LIP targets for 2021 were 328,200 tonnes of CO2, 500 tonnes of NOx, 77 tonnes of PM10 and 39 tonnes of PM2.5.

Havering’s LIP emissions targets for 2041 are 164,300 tonnes of CO2, 110 tonnes of NOx, 68 tonnes of PM10 and 34 tonnes of PM2.5.

Source: LIP3 MTS Borough outcomes borough data pack – Dec 2021

Taking a closer look at Havering’s air quality. As London’s 3rd largest borough, almost half of which is green belt, Havering is less polluted than many London boroughs.

Havering was exceeding the UK national air quality annual mean objective of 40 microgrammes per cubic metre for Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) at 4 sites in 2020*: Rush Green Road (44.4); Gallows Corner (45.2); Romford Taxi Rank (52.9) & Romford Battis (66.9).
*Source: Havering Council’s Air Quality Annual Status Report for the year 2020

Note that nowhere in London meets the WHO (World Health Organisation)’s updated recommended annual average guideline target for NO2 of 10 microgrammes per cubic metre.

PM10 levels in Havering in 2020 were well below the national air quality annual mean objective of 40 microgrammes per cubic metre, but were above the WHO’s updated guideline of 15 at one of two monitoring sites.

Chart showing annual mean PM10 automatic monitoring results in Havering in 2020. From Havering Council's Air Quality Annual Status Report 2021 for the year 2020.

Monitored PM2.5 in Havering in 2020 was well below the annual mean objective of 25 microgrammes per cubic metre, but at 9 was above WHO’s updated guideline standard of 5 microgrammes per cubic metre (Note: ALL Londoners live in areas above this WHO guideline.)

Chart showing annual mean PM2.5 automatic monitoring results in Havering in 2020. From Havering Council's Air Quality Annual Status Report 2021 for the year 2020.

Havering was found to be the London borough with the highest number of air pollution-related deaths in 2019 as a proportion of the total borough population, followed by Bexley, Bromley & Sutton.

Source: Toxic air reducing far more slowly in outer London than central London

Road Transport Emissions Analysis, January 2022. LAEI 2019 data update.

This is likely due to Havering having a relatively high proportion of elderly people who are more vulnerable to the impacts of air pollution.

Boroughs with the highest air pollution-related deaths in 2019 (as a proportion of the total borough population) such as Havering, also had some of the lowest rates of change in road #transport emissions between 2013-2019.

Chart showing % Road Transport NOx emissions rate of change 2013-2019 by London borough. Source: LAEI 2019 data update
Chart showing % Road Transport PM2.5 emissions rate of change 2013-2019 by London borough. Source: LAEI 2019 data update

Havering has relatively low air pollution-related hospital admissions for asthma in children compared to other London local authorities, a recent study has found. Modelled estimated results showed less than 10 admissions in 2019 in Havering, City of London & Kensington & Chelsea.

Maps showing asthma hospital admissions attributed to NO2 in children across London boroughs. Source: 'Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Asthma in London' by researchers at Imperial College London

There were estimated to have been 26 hospital admissions for air-pollution related asthma & COPD in the elderly (aged 65+) in Havering in 2019. The highest number were in Southwark & Tower Hamlets (39 each) & the lowest in City of London (<10).

See: Health impact assessment of current and past air pollution on asthma in London, Imperial College London report
Over 1,700 asthma hospitalisations in London due to toxic air, Mayor of London Press Release

Maps showing asthma and COPD hospital admissions attributed to NO2 in the elderly (age group 65+) across London boroughs. Source: 'Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution on Asthma in London' by researchers at Imperial College London

Havering is not one of the 26 London boroughs that has declared a Climate Emergency. Havering Council adopted this Climate Change Action Plan last November setting out how the borough intends to become carbon neutral by 2040.

Transport section from Havering's Climate Change Action Plan Summary. Source: Havering Climate Change Action Plan Summary document

Our next annual Healthy Streets Scorecard results for all London boroughs will be published in July 2022.

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